MARCH MADNESS

Full bracket predictions from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, updated daily

Prediction Engine

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Championship odds, upset alerts, expert sentiment, and model-vs-market comparisons.

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Methodology

10,000 Monte Carlo bracket simulations per run. Each matchup uses adjusted efficiency margins and tempo-free stats. Offensive and defensive ratings are per-100-possession, opponent-adjusted. Upset probabilities are calibrated against two decades of tournament results by seed pairing: 5/12 and 6/11 matchups get additional variance. Sportsbook futures from 10+ books are devigged using multiplicative margin removal, then averaged into a consensus line. The model-market delta flags where our simulation disagrees with Vegas.

Details

The Madness Score is a composite 0-100 ranking. Weights: ensemble analytics (50%), simulation championship probability (30%), expert sentiment (15%), historical tournament pedigree (5%). Expert sentiment is sourced from public podcasts and articles, then scored on a bullish/bearish scale with confidence weighting. All 68 tournament teams get championship, Final Four, and Sweet 16 probabilities.