NBA FINALS

Power ratings, playoff momentum, and championship odds for all 30 teams

Methodology

Playoff net rating, positional matchup data, and rest days between games. Each game in a series is simulated independently, adjusting for home court and how each team has performed against comparable opponents in the current postseason.

Details

Scoring efficiency drops in the playoffs. Pace slows. Bench players see fewer minutes. The model applies a playoff compression factor to regular-season stats before simulating. Series prices shift after each simulated game based on updated win probability and historical comeback rates from various deficits.