STANLEY CUP

Expected goals, goaltender metrics, and series simulations. Launching April 2026

Methodology

Three inputs explain most of the variance in playoff series outcomes since the 2005 lockout: expected goals, goals saved above expected, and special teams conversion rates. Goaltender performance gets weighted more heavily as rounds progress.

Details

Scoring drops roughly 15% in the playoffs. Goaltending explains more of the outcome variance than any skater metric. The model adjusts for both and applies round-specific modifiers: first-round series are more predictable, conference finals less so.